U-Manish Patel we-SIPM wethule isimo esibuhlungu mayelana nezinxushunxushu emhlabeni wonke ezimakethe ze-fibre, i-containerboard kanye namabhokisi kathayela ngesikhathi seNkongolo ye-ICAMA ngomhla zizi-4 kuMfumfu.Ukhombise ukuthi ukuphusha kweChina ukuhlanza imvelo kuzoba nomthelela kanjani eNdiya

UManish Patel we-SIPM ngesikhathi ethula inkulumo yakhe e-ICMA (Indian Corrugated Case Manufacturers Association) Congress uthe kwakuyisikhathi se-Black Swan embonini yama-containerboard e-India.Isizathu: kube nomthelela omkhulu futhi isimo se-quo siguqulelwe ngaphakathi-ngaphandle futhi sibheke phansi.I-raison d aitre: Ukucindezela kwe-China okunolaka kokuhlanza izenzo nezintela zokuziphindiselela.

Abaholi abaphezulu bamabhokisi kakhokho okuhlanganisa noKirit Modi, umongameli we-ICCAA uthe izimakethe ezikhona manje zihlukile.Kulokhu zibangelwa ukungalingani okwenziwe ekuhlinzekeni nasekudingeni okudalwe yisinqumo sikahulumeni waseShayina sokusungula imininingwane yezinto ezigaywa kabusha ezivela kwamanye amazwe.Lokhu kucaciswa okusha, okunomkhawulo wokungcola okungu-0.5%, kube yinselele kuma-American, Canadian and European axube amaphepha kanye namapulasitiki axutshwe kabusha.Kodwa okukhathazayo, sekufake ubumnyama nenhlekelele embonini yaseNdiya.

Pho, kwenzekani?

Mhla zingama-31 kuZibandlela wezi-2017, i-China yamisa udoti omningi wepulasitiki - njengamabhodlela esoda asetshenziswa kanye, izigoqo zokudla, nezikhwama zepulasitiki - ezazivame ukuthunyelwa ogwini ukuze zilahlwe.
Ngaphambi kwalesi sinqumo, iShayina bekuyizwe elingenisa izilahlwa kwamanye amazwe kakhulu emhlabeni.Ngosuku lokuqala luka-2018, yayeka ukwamukela amapulasitiki agaywe kabusha kanye namaphepha alahliwe angahlungiwe avela phesheya, futhi yanqanda kakhulu ukuthengiswa kwamakhadibhodi.Inani lempahla etholiwe iMelika, umkhiqizi omkhulu wezilahliwe emhlabeni, eyithumele e-China yayingamathani ama-metric angu-3 (MT) ngaphansi kwengxenye yokuqala yonyaka wezi-2018 kunonyaka odlule, lehle ngama-38%.

Ngokwangempela, lokhu kubala kudoti ovela kwamanye amazwe ongabiza u-USD 24bn.Kanye namaphepha axubile namapholymeri manje asephelelwa amandla ekugayweni kabusha kwezitshalo kuwo wonke umhlaba waseNtshonalanga.Ngo-2030, ukuvinjelwa kungase kushiye i-111 million MT kadoti wepulasitiki ingenandawo yokuya.
Akugcini lapho.Isizathu, itulo liyaqina.

U-Patel uveze ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-China kwephepha kanye ne-paperboard kukhule kwafinyelela ezigidini eziyi-120 ze-MT ngo-2015 kusuka kumathani ama-metric ayizigidi eziyi-10 ngo-1990. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-India ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-13.5.UPatel uthe, kube nokushoda okungama-30% ku-RCP (amaphepha agaywe kabusha futhi alahlwayo) ebhodini lamabhokisi ngenxa yemikhawulo.Lokhu kubangele izinto ezimbili.Okokuqala, ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zasekhaya ze-OCC (amakhadibhodi kathayela amadala) kanye nokushoda kwe-MT kwezigidi ezingu-12 ebhodini lase-China.

Ngesikhathi bexoxa nezithunywa ezivela eChina engqungqutheleni nasembukisweni oseduze, bakhulume neWhatPackaging?ngeziyalezo eziqinile zokungaziwa.Ummeleli ovela eShanghai, uthe, "Uhulumeni waseChina uqinile ngenqubomgomo yawo ka-0.5% futhi wehlise ukungcoliswa."Ngakho-ke kwenzekani ezinkampanini ezigaya kabusha ezingu-5,000 ezinabantu abayizigidi ezingu-10 abasebenza embonini yaseShayina, impendulo evamile yaba ukuthi, “Akukho ukuphawula njengoba imboni idida futhi iyinkimbinkimbi futhi ingcolile eChina.Alukho ulwazi kanye nokushoda kwesakhiwo esifanele - futhi ububanzi obugcwele kanye nomphumela wenqubomgomo entsha yaseChina yokungenisa izinsalela enezici eziningi namanje ayikaqondwa ngokugcwele.”

Into eyodwa icacile, izimvume zokungenisa eChina kulindeleke ukuthi ziqine.Omunye umkhiqizi waseShayina uthe, “Amabhokisi kathayela enza ngaphezu kwengxenye yamaphepha aseShayina aphinde agaywa kabusha athengwa kwamanye amazwe ngenxa yezintambo zawo ezinde, eziqinile.Ziyibanga elihlanzekile kunephepha elixutshiwe, ikakhulukazi amabhokisi kathayela aphuma kuma-akhawunti okuhweba.”Kukhona ukungaqiniseki ngezinqubo zokuhlola ezidala izinkinga ezweni laseChina.Ngakho-ke, abahlaziyi bephepha bayanqikaza ukuthumela amabhala we-OCC baze bazi ukuthi ukuhlolwa kuzohambisana futhi kubikezelwe.

Izimakethe zaseNdiya zizobhekana nezinxushunxushu ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezizayo.Njengoba uPatel asho, isici esiyingqayizivele somjikelezo we-RCP waseChina ukuthi uthonywa kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe.Uthe, u-20% we-GDP yaseChina ukhuliswa wukuthekelisa futhi “njengoba ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kweChina kuwuhlelo olusekelwe emaphaketheni kunesidingo esinamandla sebhodi lamabhokisi.

UPatel uthe, “imakethe yaseShayina yamabanga aphansi ebhodi lokuqukatha (eyaziwa nangokuthi i-kraft paper eNdiya) ithandeka kakhulu ngokwentengo yabakhiqizi bamaphepha baseNdiya, Middle East kanye naseNingizimu East Asia.Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eShayina nakwezinye izindawo eMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNingizimu Asia nase-Afrika ngama-Indian nezinye izigayo zesifunda akugcini nje ngokumunca umthamo oweqile ezimakethe zasekhaya kodwa kudala ukushoda.Lokhu kukhuphula izindleko zabo bonke abakhiqizi bamabhokisi kathayela besifunda kuhlanganise nabaseNdiya.

Wachaza ukuthi izigayo zamaphepha eNingizimu East Asia, eNdiya naseMpumalanga Ephakathi zizama kanjani ukuvala lesi sikhala esishodayo.Uthe, “Ukushoda kwamaShayina cishe kwezigidi eziyi-12-13 MT/ngonyaka) kudlula kakhulu amandla omhlaba.Futhi-ke, abakhiqizi abakhulu baseShayina bazosabela kanjani ku-fiber yomthombo wezigayo zabo e-China?Ingabe ama-recyclers ase-US azokwazi ukuhlanza imfucumfucu yawo yokupakisha?Ingabe izigayo zephepha zaseNdiya zizosusa ukunaka kwazo (kanye nemikhawulo yenzuzo) ziye eShayina esikhundleni semakethe yendawo?

I-Q&A ngemuva kokwethulwa kukaPatel ikwenze kwacaca, ukuthi izibikezelo ziyize.Kodwa lokhu kubukeka kuyinhlekelele embi kakhulu kule minyaka eyishumi edlule.
Njengoba isidingo okulindeleke ukuthi sithuthukiswe ukuze kufezwe izidingo ze-e-commerce blockbuster izinsuku zokuthenga ku-inthanethi kanye nenkathi yeholide yendabuko ye-Diwali, izinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo zibukeka zinzima.Ingabe i-India ikhona into ekufundile kulesi siqephu sakamuva, noma njengenjwayelo, sizophelelwa yithemba, futhi sibambe umoya kuze kwenzeke okulandelayo?Noma sizozama ukuthola izixazululo?